开放经济下中国养老保险体系选择及养老保险基金运作研究

开放经济下中国养老保险体系选择及养老保险基金运作研究

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开放经济下中国养老保险体系选择及养老保险基金运作研究

摘要：本文从萨缪尔森的叠代模型出发，从经济学的角度对现收现付制、完全积累制以及部分积累制进行分析。认为在1个封闭式的经济中只要最优储蓄率能够得到保证，养老金增长的物质基础是完全1样的，即养老金获得增长的物质源泉只能是下1代就业人口的增长和他们劳动生产率的提高。但在1个开放经济里，最优储蓄率的讨论就没有意义了，因此经济的全球化为养老体系从现收现付制向积累制的转轨提供了1个有利的支持。进而引出经济全球化下中国资本市场对外开放中养老保险基金的投资与回报率问题。随着我国加入WTO6年以来资本市场对外开放承诺的逐步兑现，应该更多关注国际资本市场。国际资本市场上特别是发达资本市场的相对健康规范和安全，养老保险基金投资的前提和重点是要保证长期稳定的收益，在投资运作时应该谨慎地选择最能分散风险的组合，达到在控制好投资风险的前提下提高投资的收益的目的。总的来看，文章从宏观经济学动态运行的角度，结合中国的实际情况，对上述问题作1个较为全面的经济学分析，进而提出关于我国养老保险体系选择及均衡运行的战略性思考。

关键词：叠代模型；最优储蓄率；混合养老保险体系；国际资本市场

Operation of Endowment Insurance Fund in Open Economy of China
 
Abstract: This paper analyzes the pay-as-you-go system, total accumulation system, and some accumulation system, from the viewpoint of economics on the basis of the iterative model raised by Samuelson. This paper holds that in a closed economy, as long as the optimal savings rate can be guaranteed, the material foundation for the growth of pensions is invariable, i.e. the increase of the population under employment in the next generation and the improvement of their productivity, but in an open economy, the discussion on the optimal savings rate is pointless. Accordingly, the economic globalization provides a favorable support for the endowment insurance system to transform from the current pay-as-you-go system to the accumulation system. Thus, this paper puts forward the issue of the investment and redounding rate of old-aged pension as Chinas capital market opens to the outside world and on the basis of Chinas actual conditions makes a comprehensive economic analysis on the above question from the perspective of dynamic macro-economics. More attention should be paid to the international capital market, as more and more capital market is open to the outside world since our country joined the WTO five years ago. International capital market especially the developed capital market is comparatively healthy, standard and safe. The precondition and key point of the investment of endowment insurance fund is to guarantee the long-term profits, so when investing, we should choose the group which can spread risks to the largest extent in order to get more profits on the condition that the investment risk is under control. Finally, this paper makes a strategic thinking on the choosing and balanced running of endowment insurance system of our country.

Key words: Over-lapping Model; Optimal Saving Rates; Mixed Endowment Insurance System; International Capital Market

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